I highly recommend John Mauldin’s weekly free investment/economics newsletter. I’ve been reading it for about two or three months now, and it is really excellent every week. Mauldin is a brilliant analyst, a voracious reader, and he seems to have the pulse on current economic trends. I haven’t done much investment reading for a while, but Mauldin has reinspired me, to some extent.
Namely, I’ve just started reading his book, Bull’s Eye Investing. I’m only three chapters in, so I can’t give it a hearty no-reservations endorsement, but so far I’m impressed.
One of Mauldin’s major conclusions (in the book and in his newsletter) is that we are currently in a secular bear market, and that we shouldn’t expect the stock market to do much more than move sideways for the next 8-15 years. He has reams of data and analysis that back up this conclusion. Supposedly, his book is also going to discuss how to invest in such a climate, but I haven’t gotten to that part yet.
My favorite weblog critic, a big fan of Friederich Hayek, will also appreciate the fact that Mauldin’s economic analysis is largely based in the philosophy of the Austrian school of economic thought.
I should note that Mauldin is a Texan and is pro-Bush. The issue of Mauldin’s politics rarely comes up in the newsletter, though, as he pretty much focuses completely on economic and market issues. He is also level headed enough to recognize that while the Bush tax cuts have provided some economic stimulus, that they have also created problems via the bulging budget deficit.
Incidentally, Mauldin currently predicts that regardless of the outcome of the election, the economy will muddle through for the next 12-18 months with a recession starting in late 2005 or 2006. In other words, it’s going to be a long haul. (I should note that Mauldin, unlike most investment pundits does not think that stock market prices are closely tied to economic performance in anything other than the very long run, e.g. 30 years or so.) We’ll see if/how his prediciton changes over time or is proven right.